%0 Journal Article %T 江苏省空气质量预报与实测结果比对研究 %T Comparative Study between Air Quality Forecast and Actual Measurement in Jiangsu Province %A 陆维青,江峰琴,刘丽霞,王爱平 %J 环境监控与预警 %@ 1674-6732 %V 9 %N 1 %D 2017 %P 10-14 %K 江苏;空气质量;数值预报;模式检验 %K Jiangsu; Air quality; Numerical forecast; Model test %X 选取2015年1—8月江苏地区NAQPMS、CMAQ、CAMx、WRF-Chem 4个模式预报结果与实测值进行比对分析,结果表明,标准化分数偏差(MFB)为-0.066 5~0.201 1,标准化分数误差(MFE)最大值为0.381 8,均在理想范围内,其中CAMx预报效果相对较好,WRF-Chem有一定误差。4个模式相比,NAQPMS对于PM10的模拟性能较好,各模式对PM2.5模拟性能相近,CMAQ和CAMx对O3模拟较好,WRF-Chem对CO模拟较好,各模式对SO2和NO2的模拟都需进一步优化。 %X In this study, we compared the results from 4 model forecasts, including NAQPMS, CMAQ, CAMx, and WRFChem, from January to August in 2015 in Jiangsu area with actual observation data. It was found that the mean fractional bias was between -0.066 5 and 0.201 1 and the maximum value of mean fractional error was 0.381 8. Both of them were in the ideal range. Of the four forecast models, CAMx predicted relatively better, and WRFChem was somewhat erroneous in the prediction. NAQPMS simulated better for PM10, all of the four models simulated similar for PM2.5, CMAQ and CAMx simulated better for O3, and WRFChem simulated better for CO. These forecasting models need further optimization for the simulation of SO2 and NO2. %R %U http://www.hjjkyyj.com/hjjkyyj/ch/reader/view_abstract.aspx %1 JIS Version 3.0.0