引用本文:叶斯琪,陈多宏,谢敏,谢智,汪宇,潘月云,沈劲,许凡.珠三角区域空气质量预报方法及预报效果评估[J].环境监控与预警,2016,8(3):10-13
YE Si qi, CHEN Duo hong, XIE Min, XIE Zhi, WANG Yu, PAN Yue yun, SHEN Jin, XU Fan.Evaluation on the Method and Effect of Air Quality Forecast in the Pearl River Delta Region[J].Environmental Monitoring and Forewarning,2016,8(3):10-13
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珠三角区域空气质量预报方法及预报效果评估
叶斯琪,陈多宏,谢敏,谢智,汪宇,潘月云,沈劲,许凡
广东省环境监测中心,广东 广州 510045
摘要:
介绍了珠三角区域空气质量预报的“六步法”流程,并对2015年空气质量等级和首要污染物预报准确率进行评估研究。结果表明,2015年珠三角区域空气质量以优良为主,24h等级预报准确率1月最高2月最低,平均准确率为87.6%;出现的首要污染物种类包PM2.5,PM10,O3-8h和NO2,预报准确率9月最高3月最低,平均准确率为72.7%。
关键词:  珠三角区域  空气质量预报  效果评估
DOI:
分类号:X821
基金项目:国家科技支撑计划基金资助项目(2014BAC21B03)
Evaluation on the Method and Effect of Air Quality Forecast in the Pearl River Delta Region
YE Siqi, CHEN Duohong, XIE Min, XIE Zhi, WANG Yu, PAN Yueyun, SHEN Jin, XU Fan
Guangdong Environmental Monitoring Center, Guangzhou,Guangdong 510045, China
Abstract:
The “Six step” method of air quality forecast in the Pearl River Delta (PRD) region was introduced and the accuracy of air quality grade and primary air pollutant forecast in 2015 were analyzed. The results showed that the air quality in the PRD region in 2015 was quite good. The accuracy rate of 24 hour air quality grade forecast was highest in January while lowest in February, with annual average of 87.6%. Primary air pollutants included PM2.5,PM10,O3-8 h and NO2.The accuracy rate of primary air pollutant forecast was highest in September while lowest in March,with annual average of 72.7%.
Key words:  The Pearl River Delta Region  Air quality forecast  Effect evaluation