引用本文:张晗,丁秀丽,张金良,吕占禄,郭凌川.基于蒙特卡罗模拟的阿特拉津健康风险评价[J].环境监控与预警,2021,13(5):75-79
ZHANG Han, DING Xiu-li, ZHANG Jin-liang, LV Zhan-lu, GUO Ling-chuan.Health Risk Assessment of Atrazine Based on Monte Carlo Simulation Method[J].Environmental Monitoring and Forewarning,2021,13(5):75-79
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基于蒙特卡罗模拟的阿特拉津健康风险评价
张晗,丁秀丽,张金良,吕占禄,郭凌川1,2,3
1. 中国环境科学研究院环境基准与风险评估国家重点实验室,北京 100012;2. 生态环境部化学品生态效应与风险评估重点实验室,北京 100012;3. 长庆石油勘探局职业病防治所,陕西 西安 710201
摘要:
为评估阿特拉津(ATR)对人体的健康风险,通过文献检索及追溯方式,收集了93篇文献中关于我国环境介质中ATR的检测数据,基于美国环保署健康风险评价方法,并运用蒙特卡罗模拟方法,评价了我国成年男性和女性ATR的健康风险,分析了各参数的敏感性和相关性。结果显示,我国成年男性和女性的非致癌健康风险熵值分别为4.53×10-2和4.30×10-2,分别有89.8%的成年男性和89.9%的成年女性风险熵值低于0.10;饮用水中ATR的浓度对其健康风险的贡献(即敏感性)分别为男性88.0%和女性83.3%,与健康风险的关联性(R)分别为男性0.907和女性0.895。我国ATR的非致癌健康风险处于可接受水平,饮用水中ATR对其健康风险的贡献最大。该方法可为有毒有害物质的健康风险预警和精准控制提供方法学参考。
关键词:  阿特拉津  健康风险评价  蒙特卡罗模拟  饮用水
DOI:
分类号:X820.4;R12
基金项目:国家重点研发计划资助项目( 2018YFC1801604) ; 国家重点实验室基本科研经费资助项目(22060204005)
Health Risk Assessment of Atrazine Based on Monte Carlo Simulation Method
ZHANG Han, DING Xiu-li, ZHANG Jin-liang, LV Zhan-lu, GUO Ling-chuan1,2,3
1. State Key Laboratory of Environmental Criteria and Risk Assessment, Chinese Research Academy of Environmental Sciences, Beijing 100012, China;2. State Environmental Protection Key Laboratory of Ecological Effect and Risk Assessment of Chemicals, Chinese Research Academy of Environmental Sciences, Beijing 100012, China;3. Changqing Petroleum Exploration Bureau Occupational Disease Dispensary, Xi an, Shanxi 710201, China
Abstract:
In order to evaluate the human health risks of atrazine,through literature search and tracing, the ATR data of Chinas environmental medium from 93 articles were collected, the health risks of atrazine for male and female were evaluated by the Monte Carlo simulation method based on the health risk assessment of US EPA, the sensitivity and the correlation were analyzed as well. The results showed that atrazine’s HQ of non carcinogenic health risks for male and female were 4.53×10-2 and 4.30×10-2, respectively. The percentage of HQ under 0.10 were 89.8% for male and 89.9% for female. The contributions of atrazine in drinking water (i.e. sensitivity) to the HQ were 88.0% for male and 83.3% for female. The correlation of atrazine in drinking water (R values) were 0.907 for male and 0.895 for female. All suggested that health risks of atrazine were acceptable and the concentration of atrazine in drinking water was the most important risk factor. This method can provide a methodological reference for health risk warning and precise control of toxic and harmful substances.
Key words:  Atrazine  Health risk assessment  Monte Carlo simulation  Drinking water