我国风速反弹特征及其对湖泊富营养化的潜在影响

丁侃<sup>1; 2</sup>; 邓建明<sup>1*</sup>

引用本文:	丁侃，邓建明.我国风速反弹特征及其对湖泊富营养化的潜在影响[J].环境监控与预警,2022,14(3):7-12
	DING Kan, DENG Jian-ming.The Characteristics of the Reverse of Surface Wind Speed in China and Its Potential Impact on Lake Eutrophication[J].Environmental Monitoring and Forewarning,2022,14(3):7-12

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我国风速反弹特征及其对湖泊富营养化的潜在影响
丁侃，邓建明^1,2
1.中国科学院南京地理与湖泊研究所，湖泊与环境国家重点实验室，江苏南京 210008;2.中国科学院大学，北京 100049

摘要:

在2010年前后全球范围内出现“大气静止”恢复、近地面风速反弹上升的现象。然而这一风速反弹现象对我国湖泊的影响尚不清楚。通过对全国745个气象监测站观测数据进行空间插值提取湖泊近地面风速时间序列，使用分段线性回归分析了我国面积＞1km²的湖泊和87个重点监测湖泊风速反弹现象的特征。结果显示，全国面积＞1km²的湖泊有71.59%出现风速反弹现象，但是东部沿海地区和新疆东部地区湖泊未出现风速反弹，重点监测的富营养化湖泊只有43.08%出现风速反弹。同时，出现风速反弹的湖泊风速转折点年份分散。预计风速反弹现象在未来短期内可能有利于我国湖泊富营养化治理，但在未来长期内气候变化将出现风速下降现象，可能对湖泊富营养化治理造成不利影响。

关键词: 风速反弹湖泊富营养化分段线性回归气候变化

DOI：

分类号:X824

基金项目:国家自然科学基金资助项目（41790423, 41621002）；中国科学院前沿科学重点研究计划基金资助项目（ZDJQY-SSW-DQC008）；江苏省水利科技基金资助项目（2020004）

The Characteristics of the Reverse of Surface Wind Speed in China and Its Potential Impact on Lake Eutrophication

DING Kan, DENG Jian-ming^1,2

1.State Key Laboratory of Lake Science and Environment, Nanjing Institute of Geography and Limnology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Nanjing, Jiangsu 210008, China;2. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China

Abstract:

A global phenomenon of recovery from “atmosphere stilling” and reverse of surface wind speed has occurred around 2010. Yet the impact of this reverse of surface wind speed on china’s lakes are still not clear. This study extracted time sequence of surface wind speed data from 745 meteorology stations in China by spatial interpolation, and analyzed the characteristics of surface wind speed of lakes with surface area greater than 1km²and 87 specially monitored lakes and reservoirs using piecewise linear regression model. The results showed that 71.59% of the lakes with surface area greater than 1 km²showed the reverse, but no sign of reverse for lakes in east China and east Xinjiang province, also only 43.08% of the eutrophic lakes showed the reverse.Meanwhile, the turning points of surface wind speed on the lakes that showed reverse trend distributed dispersedly. In the near future, continuing reverse of surface wind speed may benefit the management of lake eutrophication in China. But in long terms, surface wind speed may drop under the impact of climate change, causing potential hazardous influence on the management of lake eutrophication.

Key words: Reverse of wind speed Lake eutrophication Piecewise linear regression Climate change