引用本文:黎彬,黄俊梅.基于STIRPAT模型的闵行区工业能源碳排放分析[J].环境监控与预警,2023,15(5):106-111
LI Bin, HUANG Junmei.Analysis of Industrial Energy Carbon Emission of Minhang District Based on STIRPAT Model[J].Environmental Monitoring and Forewarning,2023,15(5):106-111
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基于STIRPAT模型的闵行区工业能源碳排放分析
黎彬,黄俊梅
上海市闵行区环境监测站,上海 201199
摘要:
对2006—2020年上海闵行区工业能源碳排放量进行估算,采用可拓展的随机性的环境影响评估模型(STIRPAT)分析了工业能源碳排放的影响因素。结果表明:2006—2020年闵行区工业能源碳排放总量、碳排放强度与工业能源消耗量均呈逐步下降的趋势;煤炭所占工业能源消费比重、人均工业产值、工业化率和工业能源强度与闵行区工业能源碳排放呈正相关关系,其中煤炭所占工业能源消费比重对闵行区工业碳排放影响最大,工业增加值、电力所占工业能源消费比重对闵行区工业能源碳排放影响不显著。基于因素分析结果,提出闵行区可通过调整工业能源消费结构、优化产业结构、提高工业能源利用效率等措施降低工业碳排放。
关键词:  STIRPAT模型  工业能源  碳排放  影响因素  闵行区
DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1674-6732.2023.05.016
分类号:X51
基金项目:上海市生态环境局青年科研项目(沪环青科〔2022〕第9号)
Analysis of Industrial Energy Carbon Emission of Minhang District Based on STIRPAT Model
LI Bin, HUANG Junmei
Minhang District Environmental Monitoring Station,Shanghai 201199,China
Abstract:
The paper estimated the carbon emissions of industrial energy in Shanghai Minhang District from 2006 to 2020. It analyzed the influencing factors of industrial energy carbon emissions by using STIRPAT model.The results show thatthe total carbon emission, carbon emission intensity and industrial energy consumption of Minhang District show a gradual downward trend from 2006 to 2020. The proportion of coal in industrial energy consumption, per capita industrial output value, industrialization rate and industrial energy intensity contribute to the increase of industrial energy carbon emissions in Minhang District. And the proportion of coal in industrial energy consumption has the greatest impact on industrial carbon emissions in Minhang District, while the industrial added value and the proportion of electricity in industrial energy consumption have little impact on industrial energy carbon emissions in Minhang District. According to the research conclusions, the suggestions on adjusting industrial energy consumption structure, optimizing industrial structure and improving industrial energy utilization efficiency are proposed to reduce the carbon emissions.
Key words:  STIRPAT model  Industrial energy  Carbon emissions  Impacting factors  Minhang district